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NFL odds are devised by brilliant NFL handicappers. This is true, but those NFL lines are not necessarily a true handicap. What do we mean by this? Let’s say that Dallas are -3 to beat Arizona. This does not literally mean that NFL handicappers believe the Cowboys are 3 points superior to the Cardinals. It means that at a line of 3 there will be the most action on either side of the line.
Those are two very different meanings, so let’s clarify it because this is crucial to understanding how NFL betting works. The true difference between Dallas and Arizona may only be 1 point, but NFL oddsmakers know that the Cowboys are “America’s team”. This means that fools on a weekend getaway from Lubbock will mosey into a Vegas sportsbook and throw money down on the Cowboys, and they won’t really care about the line. There are limits – you couldn’t make Dallas -7 if they should be -1, but at -3 you will still divide the action.
If you look at the futures market for the 2014 NFL season you can see this going on right now with NFL odds. The Cowboys are quoted at 15/1 to win the Superbowl, yet they are really a 25/1 chance at best. They do not have what it takes to win a playoff game, and NFL handicappers may agree that they are better now than they were last year, with a proven running back, a star quarterback, and a decent but not overpowering D; but their loss to the Washington Redskins exposed some huge flaws. NFL betting makes them a huge underlay because there are buyers at that price. This is a simple market people, and if there are gamblers willing to take the 15/1 then the price stays at 15/1 or goes even lower.
So when betting the NFL look for those “brand-name” teams and coaches (the Cowboys have both), chances are that the casual sports gambler will feel that they are better than they actually are. Other overrated teams include: the Broncos (currently 5/2 to win the Superbowl), and the Packers (10/1 to win the Superbowl). Neither of these teams will struggle to make the playoffs, but they are definitely overpriced in Super Bowl Betting markets right now.
Conversely, teams that fly under the radar in smaller markets, like the Lions and the Chargers are undervalued by the NFL betting market. Taking these teams in the first few weeks of the season to cover may be a very smart betting strategy, as they should outperform the line. Now, NFL handicappers in Vegas who set the lines know this, but their job is to split the action, not to pick the game. Remembering this point is the key to doing well in NFL betting.
Betting against the popular teams
There are times when this technique works and times where it doesn’t. Just like any system or technique, it isn’t foolproof. Take last year’s Broncos team for instance. The betting public was all over Denver early in the season when they were kicking ass and taking names. The sportsbooks lost a lot because of that and had some truly extraordinary lines to try to get some action on the other side.
It’s all about patience, timing and selecting the right games. Inevitably, the public will bet heavily on the favorite in one of these situations when there is a good chance for the underdog to perform well. The lines will move to give people betting on the underdog better odds. This is when you have to strike.
Another good sign is when the betting public at large is taking one side and the line doesn’t move much. This is a sign that there are a couple of large bets on the underdog. Some sportsbooks will show you the percentage of people that have placed bets on a certain team; this doesn’t indicate the amount of money on each side, but the percentage of total bets made. In these rare cases, you will want to bet on the underdog.
And when all else fails, just try betting on the underdog after the favorite gets bet down. Remember that about 60% to 65% of all bets are generally placed on the favorites, even though there is about a 50/50 (plus or minus a percentage point or two) chance of both sides winning the spread in the NFL. The most important thing you need to do is be selective about the games which you place bets on.
